Global banks' macroeconomic expectations and credit supply / Xiang Li, Steven Ongena
Anzeigen / Download1.17 MB
Discovery
1929255047
URN
urn:nbn:de:gbv:3:2-123456789-1176965
DOI
ISBN
ISSN
Autorin / Autor
Beiträger
Körperschaft
Erschienen
Halle (Saale), Germany : Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) - Member of the Leibniz Association, 2025
Umfang
1 Online-Ressource (III, 38 Seiten, Seite A1-A8, 1,17 MB) : Diagramme
Ausgabevermerk
Sprache
eng
Anmerkungen
Literaturverzeichnis: Seite 35-38
Inhaltliche Zusammenfassung
We investigate how global banks' macroeconomic expectations for borrower countries influence their credit supply. Utilizing granular data on varying expectations among banks lending to the same firm at the same time, combined with an instrumental variable approach, we find that more optimistic GDP growth expectations for a borrower country are strongly linked to increased credit supply. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in a lender's GDP growth expectation for the borrower's country corresponds to an increase of 8.46 percentage points in the loan share, equivalent to approximately 0.75 standard deviations of the loan share and $75.35 million in loan amount. In contrast, global banks' short-term inflation expectations do not show a significant impact on their credit supply.
Schriftenreihe
IWH discussion papers ; 2025, no. 8 (June 2025) ppn:837399270