Models for the analysis of international interrelations of the EU ETS and of a CBAM : summary : final report / by Christian Lutz, Maximilian Banning, Saskia Reuschel, Mark Meyer (GWS mbH, Osnabrück), Leonidas Paroussos, Dimitris Fragkiadakis, Zoi Vrontisi (E3-Modelling, Athens) ; on behalf of the German Environment Agency ; edited by: Section Economic Aspects of Emissions Trading, Auctioning, Evaluation - Frank Gagelmann (Fachbegleitung)
Download1.39 MB
Models for the analysis of international interrelations of the EU ETS and of a CBAM Discovery
1961876191
URN
urn:nbn:de:gbv:3:2-123456789-1191159
DOI
ISBN
ISSN
Koordinaten
Skalierung
Beiträger
Körperschaft
Erschienen
Dessau-Roßlau : Umweltbundesamt, 2025
Umfang
1 Online-Ressource (32 Seiten, 1,39 MB) : Diagramme
Ausgabevermerk
Sprache
eng
Anmerkungen
Report completed in: October 2024
Literaturverzeichnis: Seite 32
Sprache der Zusammenfassung: Englisch, Deutsch
Inhaltliche Zusammenfassung
Two types of large-scale models with different modelling philosophies are used to quantify socioeconomic effects in scenarios in which the EU moves forward in climate policy and applies different design options under the EU emissions trading system (ETS) combined with a Carbon Border Adjustment (CBAM). One model, GEM-E3, is a computable general equilibrium model that follows neoclassical theory, while the other model, GINFORS-E, is a macroeconometric model that follows a post-Keynesian approach. The results of both models suggest that an effective CBAM plays a significant role in reducing the risk of carbon leakage. The key results on trade, production and emission effects also show, by and large, little quantitative variation between the two models, in spite of their different philosophies. The overall report consists of four separate reports next to this Summary Report: The Central Report covers the results of the key policy scenarios on the EU-ETS design regarding allocation and the CBAM. It also includes some key sensitivity analyses on trade assumptions, climate policy ambition in major trading partner countries, and on the scope of the CBAM; The Technical Report documents how the two models have been harmonised in terms of external assumptions on, e.g., global population, GDP development and on energy prices. This is followed by exploratory scenario runs that address the impact of the EU moving forward versus the case that global uniform CO2 prices achieve either a 2 degrees, or a 1.5 degrees climate policy goal. A further report provides an overview of existing models that are capable of representing issues of carbon leakage and of policies that address it. The report focuses on the two types of models applied in this project’s modelling work (CGE and macroeconometric), but also covers prominent partial equilibrium (energy system) models and Integrated Assessment Models (IAM); Finally, a journal article analysing integrated assessment models used for highly aggregated assessment scenario analyses with a time horizon until 2100.
Schriftenreihe
Climate change. Umweltbundesamt ; 2025, 77 ppn:525877959
Ressortforschungsplan of the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Nuclear Safety and Consumer Protection
Ressortforschungsplan of the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Nuclear Safety and Consumer Protection