Outperforming IMF forecasts by the use of leading indicators / Katja Drechsel; Sebastian Giesen; Axel Lindner
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Discovery
782622488
URN
urn:nbn:de:gbv:3:2-28834
DOI
ISBN
ISSN
Autorin / Autor
Beiträger
Körperschaft
Erschienen
Halle (Saale) : Inst. für Wirtschaftsforschung, 2014
Umfang
Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: IV, 27 S., 0,54 MB) : graph. Darst.
Ausgabevermerk
Sprache
eng
Anmerkungen
Inhaltliche Zusammenfassung
This study analyzes the performance of the IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts for world output and the aggregates of both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current and the next year, we examine whether IMF forecasts can be improved by using leading indicators with monthly updates. Using a real-time dataset for GDP and for the indicators we find that some simple single-indicator forecasts on the basis of data that are available at higher frequency can significantly outperform the IMF forecasts if the publication of the Outlook is only a few months old.
Schriftenreihe
IWH-Diskussionspapiere ; 2014,4 ppn:37244492X