Nowcasting East German GDP growth : a MIDAS approach / João C. Claudio, Katja Heinisch, Oliver Holtemöller
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Discovery
1687470588
URN
urn:nbn:de:gbv:3:2-116319
DOI
ISBN
ISSN
Autorin / Autor
Beiträger
Körperschaft
Erschienen
Halle (Saale), Germany : Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) - Member of the Leibniz Association, [2019]
Umfang
1 Online-Ressource (III, 20 Seiten, 0,83 MB) : Diagramme
Ausgabevermerk
Sprache
eng
Anmerkungen
Inhaltliche Zusammenfassung
Economic forecasts are an important element of rational economic policy both on the federal and on the local or regional level. Solid budgetary plans for government expenditures and revenues rely on efficient macroeconomic projections. However, official data on quarterly regional GDP in Germany are not available, and hence, regional GDP forecasts do not play an important role in public budget planning. We provide a new quarterly time series for East German GDP and develop a forecasting approach for East German GDP that takes data availability in real time and regional economic indicators into account. Overall, we find that mixed-data sampling model forecasts for East German GDP in combination with model averaging outperform regional forecast models that only rely on aggregate national information.
Schriftenreihe
IWH-Diskussionspapiere ; 2019, no. 24 (December 2019) ppn:837399270