Should forecasters use real-time data to evaluate leading indicator models for GDP prediction? : German evidence / Katja Heinisch, Rolf Scheufele
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Discovery
879247282
URN
urn:nbn:de:gbv:3:2-67732
DOI
ISBN
ISSN
Autorin / Autor
Beiträger
Körperschaft
Erschienen
Halle (Saale), Germany : Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), 08. Februar 2017
Umfang
1 Online-Ressource (III, 30 Seiten, 1,07 MB) : Diagramme
Ausgabevermerk
Sprache
eng
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Inhaltliche Zusammenfassung
In this paper we investigate whether differences exist among forecasts using real-time or latest-available data to predict gross domestic product (GDP). We employ mixed-frequency models and real-time data to reassess the role of survey data relative to industrial production and orders in Germany. Although we find evidence that forecast characteristics based on real-time and final data releases differ, we also observe minimal impacts on the relative forecasting performance of indicator models. However, when obtaining the optimal combination of soft and hard data, the use of final release data may understate the role of survey information.
Schriftenreihe
IWH-Diskussionspapiere ; 2017, no. 5 ppn:837399270