Macroeconomic effects from sovereign risk vs. Knightian uncertainty / Ruben Staffa ; editor: Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) - Member of the Leibniz Association
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Discovery
1879945908
URN
urn:nbn:de:gbv:3:2-1036152
DOI
ISBN
ISSN
Autorin / Autor
Beiträger
Körperschaft
Erschienen
Halle (Saale), Germany : Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) - Member of the Leibniz Association, December 2023
Umfang
1 Online-Ressource (III, 27 Seiten, 12 ungezählte Seiten, 1,76 MB) : Diagramme
Ausgabevermerk
Sprache
eng
Anmerkungen
Literaturverzeichnis: Seite [28]-[31]
Inhaltliche Zusammenfassung
This paper compares macroeconomic effects of Knightian uncertainty and risk using policy shocks for the case of Italy. Drawing on the ambiguity literature, I use changes in the bid-ask spread and mid-price of government bonds as distinct measures for uncertainty and risk. The identification exploits the quasi-pessimistic behavior under ambiguity-aversion and the dealer market structure of government bond markets, where dealers must quote both sides of the market. If uncertainty increases, ambiguity-averse dealers will quasi-pessimistically quote higher ask and lower bid prices - increasing the bid-ask spread. In contrast, a pure change in risk shifts the risk-compensating discount factor which is well approximated by the change in bond mid-prices. I evaluate economic effects of the two measures within an instrumental variable local projection framework. The main findings are threefold. First, the resulting shock time series for uncertainty and risk are uncorrelated with each other at the intraday level, however, upon aggre- gation to monthly level the measures become correlated. Second, uncertainty is an important driver of economic aggregates. Third, macroeconomic effects of risk and uncertainty are similar, except for the response of prices. While sovereign risk raises inflation, uncertainty suppresses price growth - a result which is in line with increased price rigidity under ambiguity.
Schriftenreihe
IWH-Diskussionspapiere ; 2023, no. 27 (December 2023) ppn:837399270