International climate initiatives - a way forward to close the emissions gap? : initiatives’ potential and role under the Paris Agreement / by Jakob Graichen, Sean Healy, Anne Siemons (Öko-Institut e.V.), Niklas Höhne, Takeshi Kuramochi, Sofia Gonzales-Zuñiga, Sebastian Sterl (NewClimate Institute), Jan Kersting, Jakob Wachsmuth (Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI) ; on behalf of the Federal Environment Agency (Germany) ; publisher: Umweltbundesamt ; study performed by: Öko-Institut Berlin ; edited by: Section I 2.1 International Climate Protection, Judith Voß-Stemping

Abstract

In December 2015 Parties adopted the Paris Agreement at the 21st session of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In its Article 2 governments agreed to limit global warming to “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and to pursue to limit it to 1.5°C (UNFCCC 2015). The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2015 showed that a gap of 14 GtCO2e exists for 2030 between the (unconditional) mitigation proposals submitted by Parties as part of their intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) and a pathway compatible with holding temperature increase below 2°C (UNEP 2015b). Based on an analysis of 174 initiatives the study analyses the potential impact of these initiatives on GHG emissions in comparison to INDCs, identifies good practices shared by these initiatives and further discusses the relationship between these initiatives and the UNFCCC. The results inter alia reveal a global reduction potential of 5-11 GtCO2 equivalents/year of 19 initiatives till 2030.