Heinisch, KatjaGiesen, SebastianLindner, Axel2025-05-282014https://epflicht.bibliothek.uni-halle.de/handle/123456789/1213782622488urn:nbn:de:gbv:3:2-288341954294This study analyzes the performance of the IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts for world output and the aggregates of both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current and the next year, we examine whether IMF forecasts can be improved by using leading indicators with monthly updates. Using a real-time dataset for GDP and for the indicators we find that some simple single-indicator forecasts on the basis of data that are available at higher frequency can significantly outperform the IMF forecasts if the publication of the Outlook is only a few months old.Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: IV, 27 S., 0,54 MB) : graph. Darst.enghttp://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/330Book