Otto, ChristianSchult, ChristophVogt, ThomasLeibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle2026-03-042025https://epflicht.bibliothek.uni-halle.de/handle/123456789/1178371936246627urn:nbn:de:gbv:3:2-123456789-1178379Vietnam, a lower-middle-income economy, faces severe climate risks from heat waves, sea-level rise, and tropical cyclones, which are expected to intensify under ongoing global warming. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, we analyze economic transition dynamics from 2015 to 2100, incorporating heat-induced labor productivity losses, agricultural land loss, and cyclone-related property damage. We compare a Paris-compatible scenario limiting warming to below 2 °C with a high-emission scenario reaching 4–5 °C. While output and investment impacts remain highly uncertain and statistically indistinguishable across scenarios until 2100, consumption losses are significantly larger under high emissions, mainly driven by heat-related productivity declines, with cyclones contributing most to uncertainty. These findings underscore the importance of considering multiple impact channels beyond output damages in climate-development research.1 Online-Ressource (III, 53 Seiten, 2,92 MB) : Diagrammeenghttp://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/330