Schweinitz, GregorLeibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle2025-05-302023kxp: 1876904089https://epflicht.bibliothek.uni-halle.de/handle/123456789/132671876904089urn:nbn:de:gbv:3:2-10251473280044This paper contributes to a better understanding of the important role that credit demand plays for credit markets and aggregate macroeconomic developments as both a source and transmitter of economic shocks. I am the first to identify a structural credit demand equation together with credit supply, aggregate supply, demand and monetary policy in a Bayesian structural VAR. The model combines informative priors on structural coefficients and multiple external instruments to achieve identification. In order to improve identification of the credit demand shocks, I construct a new granular instrument from regional mortgage origination. I find that credit demand is quite elastic with respect to contemporaneous macro-economic conditions, while credit supply is relatively inelastic. I show that credit supply and demand shocks matter for aggregate fluctuations, albeit at different times: credit demand shocks mostly drove the boom prior to the financial crisis, while credit supply shocks were responsible during and after the crisis itself. In an out-of-sample exercise, I find that the Covid pandemic induced a large expansion of credit demand in 2020Q2, which pushed the US economy towards a sustained recovery and helped to avoid a stagflationary scenario in 2022.1 Online-Ressource (III, 64 Seiten, 1,94 MB) : Diagrammeenghttp://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/330Book