Review von Zielmarken, Szenarien und Prognosen der Entwicklung der Windenergienutzung - aufbereitet für Westsachsen und Nordhessen / Jan Monsees. Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung - UFZ, Department Ökonomie

Abstract

The paper examines the applicability of available scenarios, prognoses and political target-set-tings of the future development of wind power generation as guiding parameters for the re-search project "FlächEn" which focuses on ecological-economic modelling of a sustainable siting of wind turbines, exemplified for two investigation areas in Germany - Western Saxony and Northern Hesse. The review shows, that wind energy shares in electric power consump-tion for the two areas cannot be, as originally intended in the research project, deduced just like that. As far as energy and climate policy targets are set, these refer to different variables and/or higher aggregated spatial units, e.g., the national level. However, it is not advisable for various reasons to proportionally break down national into sub-national targets 1:1. Moreover, such goals have to be disaggregated not only spatially but also in terms of different energy consuming sectors and policy actions. The second link of the "FlächEn" project, in addition to policy targets are scenarios and prognoses. For this purpose, the review covers 16 references containing relevant scenarios and prognoses with diverse spatial, sectoral and temporal sco-pes. Besides terminological inaccuracies, the review shows that these scenarios and prognoses cover mostly the national and occasionally the state level. Consequently, based on several as-sumptions, they have to be regionalized to fit the two investigation areas. In order to obtain target corridors for the future development of wind power generation in Western Saxony and Northern Hesse in this manner, eventually, only a few of the references evaluated are useful.